ALDERIA INTELLIGENCE
← All signals
Clinical Trial17 Jun 2026Phase 3

A Phase 3, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Event-Driven Study to Investigate the Effect of Retatrutide on the Incidence of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events and Major Adverse Kidney Events in Participants With Body Mass Index ≥27 kg/m2 and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease and/or Chronic Kidney Disease

Eli Lilly and Company

Phase 3 cardiovascular and kidney outcomes trial testing retatrutide in adults with BMI ≥27 kg/m² and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and/or chronic kidney disease. Enrollment targets 10,000 participants in a double-blind, placebo-controlled, event-driven design running approximately 5 years through February 2029. Eli Lilly advances retatrutide into major outcomes territory, competing directly with established GLP-1 agents that already hold cardiovascular indications like Wegovy and future tirzepatide expansions. This represents the largest cardiovascular outcomes program for any triple agonist to date.

Strategic Signal

Eli Lilly positions retatrutide for cardiovascular outcomes before obesity approval, mirroring Novo's successful Wegovy MACE expansion strategy in March 2024. The 10,000-patient scale signals Lilly's confidence in competing against established GLP-1 cardiovascular claims from Wegovy and potential future tirzepatide MACE data. US CMS and EU HTA bodies will compare retatrutide's risk reduction profile against existing GLP-1 cardiovascular evidence when evaluating reimbursement tiers. The dual MACE/kidney endpoint combination targets high-value patient populations already covered by competitor agents.

CardiovascularKidneyWeight lossEli Lilly

Original Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to determine if retatrutide can significantly lower the incidence of serious heart-related complications or prevent the worsening of kidney function. The trial will enroll adults with body mass index 27 kg/m\^2 or higher and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease and/or chronic kidney disease. The study will last for about 5 years. Participants will have up to 27 clinic visits with the study doctor. | Condition(s): Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD); Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) | Primary endpoint(s): Time to First Occurrence of Composite Endpoints; Time to First Occurrence of Composite Endpoint of End Stage Kidney Disease (ESKD), ≥ 40% Sustained Decline in Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR), CV Death or Renal Death | Enrollment: 10,000 (estimated) | Phase: Phase 3 | Sponsor: Eli Lilly and Company | Expected completion: 2029-02 | Status: Active Not Recruiting | Last update: 2026-06-17

Related signals

Strategic Signal

FDA1 Apr 2026New Drug Approval (NDA/BLA)High impact● 10/10i

FDA Approves Foundayo (Orforglipron) — New Drug Approval (NDA/BLA)

FDA approved orforglipron (Foundayo, Eli Lilly) for type 2 diabetes -- a once-daily oral small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist. Orforglipron is the first non-peptide oral GLP-1 approved in the US; oral semaglutide (Rybelsus, Novo Nordisk) has been approved for T2D since 2019 and expanded to obesity in January 2026. Unlike Rybelsus, orforglipron requires no fasting or water volume restrictions before dosing.

GLP-1Type 2 diabetesPricing/accessEli LillyNovo Nordisk

Strategic Signal

Clinical Trial19 Mar 2026Phase 3High impact● 9/10i

Efficacy and Safety of Tirzepatide Once Weekly in Participants Without Type 2 Diabetes Who Have Obesity or Are Overweight With Weight-Related Comorbidities: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial (SURMOUNT-1)

Phase 3 SURMOUNT-1 tests once-weekly tirzepatide at three doses versus placebo in adults without type 2 diabetes who have obesity or are overweight with comorbidities. The randomized, double-blind trial targets 2,539 participants with primary efficacy assessment at 72 weeks. This represents tirzepatide's pivotal obesity trial against placebo, potentially supporting Eli Lilly's bid to compete directly with Wegovy in the non-diabetic obesity market. A prediabetes subgroup continues long-term to assess diabetes prevention.

Weight lossGLP-1Eli Lilly

Strategic Signal

FDA19 Mar 2026Supplemental Approval: Efficacy [Priority Review]High impact● 9/10i

FDA Approves Imcivree (Setmelanotide): Supplemental Approval: Efficacy [Priority Review]

FDA approved a supplemental application for Imcivree (setmelanotide, Rhythm) on March 19, 2026, under priority review. This represents an efficacy-based label expansion for the melanocortin-4 receptor agonist, which was initially approved for rare genetic obesity disorders. Rhythm gains additional indication breadth in the specialized rare obesity market, where treatment options remain extremely limited. The priority review designation signals FDA recognition of significant unmet medical need in the expanded patient population.

Weight lossOtherRhythm

Strategic Signal

Clinical Trial17 Apr 2026Phase 3High impact● 8/10i

A Phase 3, Open-Label Study of Once Daily LY3502970 Compared With Insulin Glargine in Adult Participants With Type 2 Diabetes and Obesity or Overweight at Increased Cardiovascular Risk

Phase 3 open-label trial compared once-daily oral orforglipron versus insulin glargine in people with type 2 diabetes and obesity or overweight at increased cardiovascular risk. The study enrolled 2,749 participants with primary endpoint of time to first major adverse cardiovascular event, completed in March 2026. Eli Lilly is positioning orforglipron as a cardiovascular outcomes option in high-risk populations, directly competing with established insulin therapy in this indication. This represents the first cardiovascular outcomes trial for orforglipron following its April 2026 FDA approval for type 2 diabetes.

GLP-1Type 2 diabetesWeight lossCardiovascularEli Lilly

Weekly briefing

Key signals, decoded for pharma executives and investors. Free, every week.

Questions? Book a consultation →