Alderia Intelligence: Cardiometabolic signals for decision-makers

Recent signals

What to watch

Upcoming events and decisions that could move the market.

Q2 2026

Amgen MariTide Phase 3 readout

Phase 3 obesity trial primary endpoint data expected. Could redefine competitive landscape for injectable GLP-1 alternatives.

Amgen

Apr 2026

EMA CHMP opinion on tirzepatide CV label expansion

Expected CHMP opinion on cardiovascular indication for tirzepatide. Key reimbursement trigger in several EU5 markets.

Eli Lilly

Mid-2026

Novo Nordisk CagriSema Phase 3 obesity data

Phase 3 results for cagrilintide/semaglutide combination. Could set a new efficacy benchmark in obesity pharmacotherapy.

Novo Nordisk

Strategic Signal

Clinical Trial21 Aug 2026Phase 3

A Randomised, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Multicentre, Phase III Trial Evaluating Long-term Efficacy and Safety of Survodutide Weekly Injections in Adult Participants With Noncirrhotic Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis/Metabolic Dysfunction-associated Steatohepatitis (NASH/MASH) and (F2) - (F3) Stage of Liver Fibrosis

Boehringer Ingelheim is testing survodutide, a weekly injectable, versus placebo in 1,800 adults with MASH and moderate to advanced liver fibrosis (F2-F3). This placebo-controlled trial runs up to 7 years with dual primary endpoints: MASH resolution without fibrosis worsening and composite clinical outcomes including progression to cirrhosis. This positions Boehringer as the first major pharma to advance a dedicated MASH program into Phase 3, targeting a liver indication where Novo's semaglutide and Eli Lilly's tirzepatide have shown promise but lack specific approvals. The 7-year duration reflects the extended timeline needed to demonstrate meaningful liver outcomes in this progressive disease.

Liver/NASHGLP-1Boehringer Ingelheim

Strategic Signal

Clinical Trial21 Aug 2026Phase 3

A Phase 3 Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Once Weekly Eloralintide in Adult Participants With Persistent Obesity or Overweight Treated With a Weekly Incretin, With and Without Type 2 Diabetes

Phase 3 randomized placebo-controlled trial testing once-weekly eloralintide in adults with persistent obesity or overweight on stable incretin therapy, with or without type 2 diabetes. Enrolling 900 participants over 80 weeks, targeting percent change in body weight from baseline. Eli Lilly is exploring combination therapy for people who have insufficient weight loss on existing GLP-1 agents, addressing a growing clinical need as incretin adoption expands. The add-on approach represents a different strategy from Novo Nordisk's CagriSema fixed-dose combination currently in Phase 3.

GLP-1Weight lossDrug comparisonsEli Lilly

Strategic Signal

Clinical Trial21 Aug 2026Phase 3

A Master Protocol to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of LY3437943 Once Weekly in Participants Without Type 2 Diabetes Who Have Obesity or Overweight: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial (TRIUMPH-1)

TRIUMPH-1 is a Phase 3 master protocol testing retatrutide (Eli Lilly's triple agonist) in 2,300 people with obesity or overweight without type 2 diabetes, including subsets with knee osteoarthritis and obstructive sleep apnea. The 89-week double-blind, placebo-controlled trial with optional 24-week extension measures weight change, osteoarthritis pain scores, and sleep apnea severity. Eli Lilly is positioning retatrutide across multiple obesity-related conditions beyond weight management, directly competing with Novo Nordisk's Wegovy in the obesity market. This comprehensive approach targets three distinct indications within one protocol, reflecting Lilly's strategy to establish retatrutide as a multi-indication obesity therapy.

Weight lossCardiovascularEli Lilly Novo Nordisk

Strategic Signal

Clinical Trial14 Aug 2026Phase 3

A Phase III, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Parallel Group Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Once-Weekly RO7795068 Administered to Participants With Obesity or Overweight and Type 2 Diabetes

RO7795068, a dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist from Roche, is being tested versus placebo for weight management in people with obesity or overweight and type 2 diabetes. Phase 3 trial targets 1,600 participants over 72 weeks in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled design. This positions Roche to compete directly with Eli Lilly's tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound) in the dual incretin mechanism space across both diabetes and obesity indications. The trial represents Roche's first major entry into the competitive GLP-1 obesity market dominated by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.

GLP-1Weight lossType 2 diabetesDrug comparisonsHoffmann-La Roche Eli Lilly

Strategic Signal

Clinical Trial14 Aug 2026Phase 3

A Phase III, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Parallel Group Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Once-Weekly RO7795068 Administered to Participants With Obesity or Overweight Without Type 2 Diabetes

Phase 3 trial testing RO7795068, a dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist, versus placebo for weight management in people with obesity or overweight without type 2 diabetes. The study will enroll 2,000 participants over 72 weeks to assess percent change in body weight. Roche is entering the competitive weight loss market currently dominated by Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Zepbound, targeting people without diabetes who represent the largest obesity population. Completion in July 2028 positions this as a potential third major dual-hormone option if successful.

GLP-1Weight lossHoffmann-La Roche

Strategic Signal

Clinical Trial14 Aug 2026Phase 3

A Phase 3, Randomized, Double-Blind Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Once-Daily Oral Orforglipron Compared With Placebo in Adult Participants With Obesity or Overweight With Weight-Related Comorbidities (ATTAIN-1)

ATTAIN-1 is testing orforglipron, Eli Lilly's oral small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist, versus placebo in 3,127 adults with obesity or overweight with weight-related comorbidities. This 72-week phase 3 trial with 2-year extension for people with prediabetes is placebo-controlled and has completed enrollment. Eli Lilly is building the clinical foundation for orforglipron in obesity, following its April 2026 FDA approval for type 2 diabetes where it differentiated from Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide with no dosing restrictions. This represents Eli Lilly's entry into oral GLP-1 obesity treatment, directly challenging Novo Nordisk's pending high-dose oral semaglutide for obesity approved in January 2026.

GLP-1Weight lossEli Lilly Novo Nordisk

A live view of the cardiometabolic category.

Recent signals

What to watch

A Phase 3 Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Once Weekly Eloralintide in Adult Participants With Persistent Obesity or Overweight Treated With a Weekly Incretin, With and Without Type 2 Diabetes

A Master Protocol to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of LY3437943 Once Weekly in Participants Without Type 2 Diabetes Who Have Obesity or Overweight: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial (TRIUMPH-1)

A Phase III, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Parallel Group Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Once-Weekly RO7795068 Administered to Participants With Obesity or Overweight and Type 2 Diabetes

A Phase III, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Parallel Group Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Once-Weekly RO7795068 Administered to Participants With Obesity or Overweight Without Type 2 Diabetes

A Phase 3, Randomized, Double-Blind Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Once-Daily Oral Orforglipron Compared With Placebo in Adult Participants With Obesity or Overweight With Weight-Related Comorbidities (ATTAIN-1)