ALDERIA INTELLIGENCE
← All signals
PubMed28 Mar 2026JAMA cardiologyHigh impact● 8/10i

Cardiorenal Outcomes With Tirzepatide Compared With Dulaglutide in Patients With Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease: A Post Hoc Analysis of the SURPASS-CVOT Randomized Clinical Trial.

Nissen SE, Wolski K, D'Alessio D, Weerakkody G, Kiljanski J et al.

Tirzepatide reduced a 6-component cardiorenal composite endpoint by 16% versus dulaglutide (23.7% vs 27.4%, HR 0.84) in people with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Post hoc analysis of SURPASS-CVOT double-blind RCT, 13,165 patients, median 46.9 months follow-up. This provides the first head-to-head cardiorenal comparison between tirzepatide and a GLP-1 agonist in high-risk cardiovascular patients, extending beyond the primary non-inferiority finding. Gastrointestinal adverse events were higher with tirzepatide (42.5% vs 35.9%).

Strategic Signal

This broader cardiorenal benefit profile strengthens Eli Lilly's positioning for tirzepatide in high-risk cardiovascular patients against Novo's established GLP-1 franchise. The 16% risk reduction across expanded endpoints provides compelling evidence for US CMS and European HTA bodies to support premium pricing in the cardiovascular indication. Lilly can now target cardiologists and nephrologists with differentiated messaging beyond glycemic control, mirroring how Novo successfully expanded semaglutide's reach beyond endocrinology.

GLP-1CardiovascularKidneyType 2 diabetesDrug comparisonsEli LillyNovo Nordisk

Original Abstract

IMPORTANCE: The dual glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) agonist tirzepatide was noninferior to a GLP-1 agonist, dulaglutide, for effects on the composite outcome of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction (MI), or stroke. However, comparison for a comprehensive range of major adverse cardiovascular and kidney outcomes has not been reported. OBJECTIVE: To perform a post hoc analysis for an expanded range of adverse outcomes in a completed randomized clinical trial comparing the effects of tirzepatide and dulaglutide in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This parallel-design double-blind trial enrolled patients with diabetes and preexisting cardiovascular disease (from May 29, 2020, to June 27, 2022) at 640 centers in North and South America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania. Data were analyzed from July 2025 to February 2026. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomized to receive subcutaneous tirzepatide up to 15 mg (n = 6586) or a fixed dose of dulaglutide, 1.5 mg (n = 6579), administered weekly. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary efficacy measure was time from randomization to first occurrence of a 6-component composite of cardiorenal adverse outcomes, including all-cause mortality, MI, stroke, coronary revascularization, hospitalization for heart failure, and a composite of adverse kidney outcomes. RESULTS: Among the 13 165 patients enrolled, the mean (SD) age was 64 (8.8) years; 9348 patients (71.0%) were male and 3817 were female (29.0%). The mean (SD) hemoglobin A1c was 8.4% (0.93). After a median (IQR) treatment duration of 46.9 (34.6-50.6) months, the primary cardiorenal end point occurred in 1559 tirzepatide-treated patients (23.7%) and 1803 dulaglutide-treated patients (27.4%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79-0.90; P < .001). Sensitivity analyses showed similar hazard ratios for a narrower 5-component end point (without the kidney composite outcomes: HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.80-0.93) and the 4-component composite (without either kidney or heart failure end points: HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.80-0.93). Gastrointestinal adverse events were more common with tirzepatide (2827 patients [42.5%]) than dulaglutide (2387 patients [35.9%]) treatment. Other adverse events were similar. CONCLUSIONS: In this post hoc analysis, the dual GLP-1 and GIP agonist tirzepatide, compared with the GLP-1 agonist dulaglutide, was associated with a lower incidence of a broad 6-component composite cardiovascular and kidney end point in patients with diabetes and established cardiovascular disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04255433.

Related signals

Strategic Signal

FDA1 Apr 2026New Drug Approval (NDA/BLA)High impact● 10/10i

FDA Approves Foundayo (Orforglipron) — New Drug Approval (NDA/BLA)

FDA approved orforglipron (Foundayo, Eli Lilly) for type 2 diabetes -- a once-daily oral small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist. Orforglipron is the first non-peptide oral GLP-1 approved in the US; oral semaglutide (Rybelsus, Novo Nordisk) has been approved for T2D since 2019 and expanded to obesity in January 2026. Unlike Rybelsus, orforglipron requires no fasting or water volume restrictions before dosing.

GLP-1Type 2 diabetesPricing/accessEli LillyNovo Nordisk

Strategic Signal

Clinical Trial19 Mar 2026Phase 3High impact● 9/10i

Efficacy and Safety of Tirzepatide Once Weekly in Participants Without Type 2 Diabetes Who Have Obesity or Are Overweight With Weight-Related Comorbidities: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial (SURMOUNT-1)

Phase 3 SURMOUNT-1 tests once-weekly tirzepatide at three doses versus placebo in adults without type 2 diabetes who have obesity or are overweight with comorbidities. The randomized, double-blind trial targets 2,539 participants with primary efficacy assessment at 72 weeks. This represents tirzepatide's pivotal obesity trial against placebo, potentially supporting Eli Lilly's bid to compete directly with Wegovy in the non-diabetic obesity market. A prediabetes subgroup continues long-term to assess diabetes prevention.

Weight lossGLP-1Eli Lilly

Strategic Signal

Clinical Trial17 Apr 2026Phase 3High impact● 8/10i

A Phase 3, Open-Label Study of Once Daily LY3502970 Compared With Insulin Glargine in Adult Participants With Type 2 Diabetes and Obesity or Overweight at Increased Cardiovascular Risk

Phase 3 open-label trial compared once-daily oral orforglipron versus insulin glargine in people with type 2 diabetes and obesity or overweight at increased cardiovascular risk. The study enrolled 2,749 participants with primary endpoint of time to first major adverse cardiovascular event, completed in March 2026. Eli Lilly is positioning orforglipron as a cardiovascular outcomes option in high-risk populations, directly competing with established insulin therapy in this indication. This represents the first cardiovascular outcomes trial for orforglipron following its April 2026 FDA approval for type 2 diabetes.

GLP-1Type 2 diabetesWeight lossCardiovascularEli Lilly

Strategic Signal

Clinical Trial13 Apr 2026Phase 3High impact● 8/10i

A Phase 3, Randomized, Double-Blind Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Retatrutide Compared to Tirzepatide in Adults Who Have Obesity

Eli Lilly is conducting a Phase 3 head-to-head trial comparing retatrutide versus tirzepatide in adults with obesity. The double-blind study targets 800 participants over 89 weeks with primary endpoint of percent body weight change, completing December 2026. This represents the first direct comparison between Eli Lilly's next-generation triple receptor agonist retatrutide and its approved dual agonist tirzepatide in obesity. The trial positions Eli Lilly to potentially establish superiority claims for retatrutide ahead of expected regulatory submissions.

GLP-1Weight lossDrug comparisonsEli Lilly

Weekly briefing

Key signals, decoded for pharma executives and investors. Free, every week.

Questions? Book a consultation →