ALDERIA INTELLIGENCE
← All signals
PubMed28 Mar 2026·JAMA cardiology● 8/10i

Cardiorenal Outcomes With Tirzepatide Compared With Dulaglutide in Patients With Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease: A Post Hoc Analysis of the SURPASS-CVOT Randomized Clinical Trial.

Nissen SE, Wolski K, D'Alessio D, Weerakkody G, Kiljanski J et al.

Tirzepatide reduced a 6-component cardiorenal composite endpoint by 16% versus dulaglutide (23.7% vs 27.4%, HR 0.84) in people with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Post hoc analysis of SURPASS-CVOT double-blind RCT, 13,165 patients, median 46.9 months follow-up. This provides the first head-to-head cardiorenal comparison between tirzepatide and a GLP-1 agonist in high-risk cardiovascular patients, extending beyond the primary non-inferiority finding. Gastrointestinal adverse events were higher with tirzepatide (42.5% vs 35.9%).

Strategic signal

This broader cardiorenal benefit profile strengthens Eli Lilly's positioning for tirzepatide in high-risk cardiovascular patients against Novo's established GLP-1 franchise. The 16% risk reduction across expanded endpoints provides compelling evidence for US CMS and European HTA bodies to support premium pricing in the cardiovascular indication. Lilly can now target cardiologists and nephrologists with differentiated messaging beyond glycemic control, mirroring how Novo successfully expanded semaglutide's reach beyond endocrinology.

GLP-1CardiovascularKidneyType 2 diabetesDrug comparisonsEli LillyNovo Nordisk

Original Abstract

IMPORTANCE: The dual glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) agonist tirzepatide was noninferior to a GLP-1 agonist, dulaglutide, for effects on the composite outcome of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction (MI), or stroke. However, comparison for a comprehensive range of major adverse cardiovascular and kidney outcomes has not been reported. OBJECTIVE: To perform a post hoc analysis for an expanded range of adverse outcomes in a completed randomized clinical trial comparing the effects of tirzepatide and dulaglutide in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This parallel-design double-blind trial enrolled patients with diabetes and preexisting cardiovascular disease (from May 29, 2020, to June 27, 2022) at 640 centers in North and South America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania. Data were analyzed from July 2025 to February 2026. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomized to receive subcutaneous tirzepatide up to 15 mg (n = 6586) or a fixed dose of dulaglutide, 1.5 mg (n = 6579), administered weekly. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary efficacy measure was time from randomization to first occurrence of a 6-component composite of cardiorenal adverse outcomes, including all-cause mortality, MI, stroke, coronary revascularization, hospitalization for heart failure, and a composite of adverse kidney outcomes. RESULTS: Among the 13 165 patients enrolled, the mean (SD) age was 64 (8.8) years; 9348 patients (71.0%) were male and 3817 were female (29.0%). The mean (SD) hemoglobin A1c was 8.4% (0.93). After a median (IQR) treatment duration of 46.9 (34.6-50.6) months, the primary cardiorenal end point occurred in 1559 tirzepatide-treated patients (23.7%) and 1803 dulaglutide-treated patients (27.4%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79-0.90; P < .001). Sensitivity analyses showed similar hazard ratios for a narrower 5-component end point (without the kidney composite outcomes: HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.80-0.93) and the 4-component composite (without either kidney or heart failure end points: HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.80-0.93). Gastrointestinal adverse events were more common with tirzepatide (2827 patients [42.5%]) than dulaglutide (2387 patients [35.9%]) treatment. Other adverse events were similar. CONCLUSIONS: In this post hoc analysis, the dual GLP-1 and GIP agonist tirzepatide, compared with the GLP-1 agonist dulaglutide, was associated with a lower incidence of a broad 6-component composite cardiovascular and kidney end point in patients with diabetes and established cardiovascular disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04255433.

Related signals

FDA1 Apr 2026·New Drug Approval (NDA/BLA)● 10/10iHigh impact

FDA Approves Foundayo (Orforglipron) — New Drug Approval (NDA/BLA)

FDA approved orforglipron (Foundayo, Eli Lilly) for type 2 diabetes -- a once-daily oral small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist. Orforglipron is the first non-peptide oral GLP-1 approved in the US; oral semaglutide (Rybelsus, Novo Nordisk) has been approved for T2D since 2019 and expanded to obesity in January 2026. Unlike Rybelsus, orforglipron requires no fasting or water volume restrictions before dosing.

GLP-1Type 2 diabetesPricing/accessEli LillyNovo Nordisk
ClinicalTrials19 Mar 2026·Phase 3● 9/10iHigh impact

Efficacy and Safety of Tirzepatide Once Weekly in Participants Without Type 2 Diabetes Who Have Obesity or Are Overweight With Weight-Related Comorbidities: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial (SURMOUNT-1)

Phase 3 SURMOUNT-1 tests once-weekly tirzepatide at three doses versus placebo in adults without type 2 diabetes who have obesity or are overweight with comorbidities. The randomized, double-blind trial targets 2,539 participants with primary efficacy assessment at 72 weeks. This represents tirzepatide's pivotal obesity trial against placebo, potentially supporting Eli Lilly's bid to compete directly with Wegovy in the non-diabetic obesity market. A prediabetes subgroup continues long-term to assess diabetes prevention.

Weight lossGLP-1Eli Lilly
ClinicalTrials17 Apr 2026·Phase 3● 8/10iHigh impactPick of the week

The Effect of Semaglutide in Subjects With Non-cirrhotic Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis

Phase 3 trial evaluates semaglutide versus placebo in adults with non-cirrhotic NASH, measuring steatohepatitis resolution, fibrosis improvement, and cirrhosis-free survival over approximately 5 years. The study enrolled 1,205 adults and is active but not recruiting, with completion expected in 2029. This represents Novo Nordisk's push into NASH, a major unmet need with no approved GLP-1 therapies despite strong preclinical rationale. The trial's dual primary endpoints and 5-year duration suggest preparation for a pivotal regulatory filing in this large addressable market.

GLP-1Liver/NASHNovo Nordisk
ClinicalTrials17 Apr 2026·Phase 3● 8/10iHigh impact

A Phase 3, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Retatrutide Once Weekly in Participants Who Have Obesity or Overweight and Chronic Low Back Pain

Phase 3 trial evaluating retatrutide for chronic low back pain in people with obesity or overweight, targeting dual primary endpoints of pain intensity reduction and weight loss. 586-person placebo-controlled study expected to complete September 2027, investigating a novel indication beyond traditional metabolic endpoints. Eli Lilly is exploring pain management as a potential expansion for their triple agonist, representing the first major trial of a GLP-1-based therapy specifically for chronic pain conditions.

GLP-1Weight lossOtherEli Lilly

Weekly briefing

Key signals, decoded for pharma executives and investors. Free, every week.