ALDERIA INTELLIGENCE
← All signals
PubMed13 Apr 2026·Diabetes care● 6/10i

Hepatic Events Prevention by Antihyperglycemic Therapies and Intervention Comparisons in Type 2 Diabetes: The HEPATIC-T2DM Network Meta-analysis.

Passos PRC, Motta R, Oliveira Costa Filho V, Noronha MM, Venâncio RC et al.

GLP-1 receptor agonists showed the lowest risk of hepatic decompensation versus all other diabetes drug classes (HRs 0.16-0.91), while thiazolidinediones had the lowest hepatocellular carcinoma risk and SGLT2 inhibitors the lowest cirrhosis risk. Network meta-analysis of 46 observational studies including 7.1 million adults with type 2 diabetes. This provides the first comprehensive liver safety ranking across all major diabetes drug classes, potentially informing prescribing in patients with existing liver disease risk. All evidence is observational, limiting causal conclusions.

Strategic signal

This liver safety hierarchy could influence US and EU diabetes guidelines for patients with NAFLD or cirrhosis risk, where prescriber choice between GLP-1s and SGLT2s often depends on available safety data. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly gain potential messaging advantages for GLP-1s in hepatic decompensation prevention, while broader SGLT2 class benefits in cirrhosis may support continued dual therapy approaches. Regulatory authorities may request liver-specific outcome trials to confirm these observational associations.

GLP-1SGLT2Type 2 diabetesLiver/NASHDrug comparisonsNovo NordiskEli Lilly

Original Abstract

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) amplifies liver disease burden, yet the comparative hepatic effects of antidiabetic drugs remain poorly defined. PURPOSE: To compare associations between antidiabetic drug classes and major adverse liver outcomes (MALOs) in adults with T2DM. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched from December 1946 through 23 August 2025. STUDY SELECTION: Studies enrolling adults with T2DM that evaluated associations between antidiabetic drug classes with regard to MALOs were included. DATA EXTRACTION: Data were extracted on study characteristics, drug exposures, and MALOs. DATA SYNTHESIS: A three-level Bayesian network meta-analysis with study- and database-level random effects was performed. Outcomes are reported as hazard ratios (HRs) and ranked using the surface under the cumulative ranking curve. Forty-six observational studies (N = 7,124,845) were included. Thiazolidinediones were least associated with hepatocellular carcinoma incidence and significantly lower than DPP-4 inhibitors (HR 0.50), GLP-1RAs (HR 0.72), insulin (HR 0.20), and sulfonylureas (HR 0.69). For decompensation (composite), GLP-1RAs were associated with the lowest hazard compared with all other classes (HRs 0.16-0.91; all significant). SGLT2 inhibitors were least associated with cirrhosis (HR 0.66 vs. DPP-4 inhibitors; HR 0.66 vs. GLP-1RAs). GLP-1RAs were least associated with variceal bleeding and hepatic encephalopathy, whereas SGLT2 inhibitors were least associated with liver-related mortality. LIMITATIONS: All included studies were observational, precluding causal inference. CONCLUSIONS: Liver-specific risk reduction is not uniform across antihyperglycemic drug classes. Randomized trials are needed to determine whether these associations reflect true drug effects.

Related signals

FDA1 Apr 2026·New Drug Approval (NDA/BLA)● 10/10iHigh impact

FDA Approves Foundayo (Orforglipron) — New Drug Approval (NDA/BLA)

FDA approved orforglipron (Foundayo, Eli Lilly) for type 2 diabetes -- a once-daily oral small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist. Orforglipron is the first non-peptide oral GLP-1 approved in the US; oral semaglutide (Rybelsus, Novo Nordisk) has been approved for T2D since 2019 and expanded to obesity in January 2026. Unlike Rybelsus, orforglipron requires no fasting or water volume restrictions before dosing.

GLP-1Type 2 diabetesPricing/accessEli LillyNovo Nordisk
ClinicalTrials19 Mar 2026·Phase 3● 9/10iHigh impact

Efficacy and Safety of Tirzepatide Once Weekly in Participants Without Type 2 Diabetes Who Have Obesity or Are Overweight With Weight-Related Comorbidities: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial (SURMOUNT-1)

Phase 3 SURMOUNT-1 tests once-weekly tirzepatide at three doses versus placebo in adults without type 2 diabetes who have obesity or are overweight with comorbidities. The randomized, double-blind trial targets 2,539 participants with primary efficacy assessment at 72 weeks. This represents tirzepatide's pivotal obesity trial against placebo, potentially supporting Eli Lilly's bid to compete directly with Wegovy in the non-diabetic obesity market. A prediabetes subgroup continues long-term to assess diabetes prevention.

Weight lossGLP-1Eli Lilly
ClinicalTrials17 Apr 2026·Phase 3● 8/10iHigh impactPick of the week

The Effect of Semaglutide in Subjects With Non-cirrhotic Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis

Phase 3 trial evaluates semaglutide versus placebo in adults with non-cirrhotic NASH, measuring steatohepatitis resolution, fibrosis improvement, and cirrhosis-free survival over approximately 5 years. The study enrolled 1,205 adults and is active but not recruiting, with completion expected in 2029. This represents Novo Nordisk's push into NASH, a major unmet need with no approved GLP-1 therapies despite strong preclinical rationale. The trial's dual primary endpoints and 5-year duration suggest preparation for a pivotal regulatory filing in this large addressable market.

GLP-1Liver/NASHNovo Nordisk
ClinicalTrials17 Apr 2026·Phase 3● 8/10iHigh impact

A Phase 3, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Retatrutide Once Weekly in Participants Who Have Obesity or Overweight and Chronic Low Back Pain

Phase 3 trial evaluating retatrutide for chronic low back pain in people with obesity or overweight, targeting dual primary endpoints of pain intensity reduction and weight loss. 586-person placebo-controlled study expected to complete September 2027, investigating a novel indication beyond traditional metabolic endpoints. Eli Lilly is exploring pain management as a potential expansion for their triple agonist, representing the first major trial of a GLP-1-based therapy specifically for chronic pain conditions.

GLP-1Weight lossOtherEli Lilly

Weekly briefing

Key signals, decoded for pharma executives and investors. Free, every week.