ALDERIA INTELLIGENCE
← All signals
PubMed1 Apr 2026·Diabetes, obesity & metabolism● 6/10i

A treat-to-target approach for obesity management: A post hoc analysis of the SURMOUNT-5 trial.

le Roux CW, Busetto L, Aronne L, Horn DB, Dimitriadis GK et al.

About 23-34% of patients with obesity treated with tirzepatide and 14-21% treated with semaglutide reached proposed treat-to-target thresholds for waist-to-height ratio or BMI reduction. Post hoc analysis of SURMOUNT-5 trial, 751 patients, 72 weeks. This provides the first structured target framework for obesity treatment goals, moving beyond simple weight loss percentages to defined metabolic risk thresholds. The analysis was post hoc rather than a prespecified endpoint.

Strategic signal

The treat-to-target framework provides Eli Lilly concrete efficacy benchmarks to communicate tirzepatide's superiority over Novo's semaglutide in payer discussions. US and EU health technology assessment bodies increasingly demand clear treatment goals and success metrics for obesity therapies. This data gives Lilly standardized endpoints to demonstrate value in ICER reviews and NICE appraisals, potentially strengthening formulary positioning against Wegovy.

GLP-1Weight lossDrug comparisonsEli LillyNovo Nordisk

Original Abstract

INTRODUCTION: With new advancements in obesity medicine, clarity on goals and expectations for successful disease management is limited. This post hoc analysis assessed application of proposed treat-to-target (TtT) thresholds for obesity to the outcome measures of SURMOUNT-5, which randomised participants with obesity to tirzepatide or semaglutide. METHODS: The proportion of participants in each treatment group reaching proposed TtT thresholds for waist to height ratio (WHtR) <0.53, body mass index (BMI) <27 kg/m2, or a combination was evaluated. The associations between the thresholds and achieving low disease activity to remission (meeting goals for at least four of five defined cardiometabolic risk parameters) and normalisation or improvement in SF-36v2 physical component score (PCS) from baseline to week 72 were explored. RESULTS: About 23.1%-33.9% of participants treated with tirzepatide and 14.2%-20.7% treated with semaglutide reached the TtT thresholds, with greater weight reduction than the overall population. About 77% of participants who reached WHtR <0.53 achieved low disease activity to remission, with an odds ratio of 2.31 (p < 0.001) compared to those who did not reach this target. The BMI threshold was not statistically associated with the assessed outcomes for SF-36v2 PCS. CONCLUSION: In this post hoc analysis of SURMOUNT-5, most participants who reached the proposed TtT thresholds achieved the goal of low disease activity to remission defined by cardiometabolic risk parameters. These data suggest that TtT thresholds in obesity medicine may clarify goals in shared decision-making and improve clinical outcomes.

Related signals

FDA1 Apr 2026·New Drug Approval (NDA/BLA)● 10/10iHigh impact

FDA Approves Foundayo (Orforglipron) — New Drug Approval (NDA/BLA)

FDA approved orforglipron (Foundayo, Eli Lilly) for type 2 diabetes -- a once-daily oral small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist. Orforglipron is the first non-peptide oral GLP-1 approved in the US; oral semaglutide (Rybelsus, Novo Nordisk) has been approved for T2D since 2019 and expanded to obesity in January 2026. Unlike Rybelsus, orforglipron requires no fasting or water volume restrictions before dosing.

GLP-1Type 2 diabetesPricing/accessEli LillyNovo Nordisk
ClinicalTrials19 Mar 2026·Phase 3● 9/10iHigh impact

Efficacy and Safety of Tirzepatide Once Weekly in Participants Without Type 2 Diabetes Who Have Obesity or Are Overweight With Weight-Related Comorbidities: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial (SURMOUNT-1)

Phase 3 SURMOUNT-1 tests once-weekly tirzepatide at three doses versus placebo in adults without type 2 diabetes who have obesity or are overweight with comorbidities. The randomized, double-blind trial targets 2,539 participants with primary efficacy assessment at 72 weeks. This represents tirzepatide's pivotal obesity trial against placebo, potentially supporting Eli Lilly's bid to compete directly with Wegovy in the non-diabetic obesity market. A prediabetes subgroup continues long-term to assess diabetes prevention.

Weight lossGLP-1Eli Lilly
ClinicalTrials17 Apr 2026·Phase 3● 8/10iHigh impactPick of the week

The Effect of Semaglutide in Subjects With Non-cirrhotic Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis

Phase 3 trial evaluates semaglutide versus placebo in adults with non-cirrhotic NASH, measuring steatohepatitis resolution, fibrosis improvement, and cirrhosis-free survival over approximately 5 years. The study enrolled 1,205 adults and is active but not recruiting, with completion expected in 2029. This represents Novo Nordisk's push into NASH, a major unmet need with no approved GLP-1 therapies despite strong preclinical rationale. The trial's dual primary endpoints and 5-year duration suggest preparation for a pivotal regulatory filing in this large addressable market.

GLP-1Liver/NASHNovo Nordisk
ClinicalTrials17 Apr 2026·Phase 3● 8/10iHigh impact

A Phase 3, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Retatrutide Once Weekly in Participants Who Have Obesity or Overweight and Chronic Low Back Pain

Phase 3 trial evaluating retatrutide for chronic low back pain in people with obesity or overweight, targeting dual primary endpoints of pain intensity reduction and weight loss. 586-person placebo-controlled study expected to complete September 2027, investigating a novel indication beyond traditional metabolic endpoints. Eli Lilly is exploring pain management as a potential expansion for their triple agonist, representing the first major trial of a GLP-1-based therapy specifically for chronic pain conditions.

GLP-1Weight lossOtherEli Lilly

Weekly briefing

Key signals, decoded for pharma executives and investors. Free, every week.