ALDERIA INTELLIGENCE
← All signals
PubMed1 Apr 2026Heart, lung & circulation● 7/10i

Initiators of Semaglutide in General Practice in New South Wales, 2020-2023: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Kuo NI, Hill F, Arnott C, Douglas K, Barbieri S et al.

Semaglutide initiations in New South Wales increased 82-fold from 448 in 2020 to 36,814 in 2023, with the proportion prescribed for people without type 2 diabetes rising from 8% to 34%. Retrospective cohort analysis of 59,009 patients across 680 general practices, 2020-2023. This provides first real-world evidence of semaglutide's rapid expansion into weight management, confirming the market shift toward non-diabetes indications that Novo Nordisk has actively pursued. The study reveals socioeconomic disparities in access that could influence reimbursement discussions.

Strategic Signal

Novo faces mounting evidence of inequitable GLP-1 access patterns that will fuel payer restrictions in Australia and similar universal healthcare systems. NICE and HAS already signal concern over obesity therapy costs; this demographic stratification data strengthens their case for restrictive formulary placement. Commercial teams must pivot messaging from broad population benefits to demonstrable cost-effectiveness in specific subgroups before Q2 2024 reimbursement reviews.

GLP-1Weight lossType 2 diabetesPricing/accessReal-world evidenceNovo Nordisk

Original Abstract

AIM: We aimed to analyse trends and demographic and clinical profiles in initial prescriptions of semaglutide ("Ozempic") by general practitioners in New South Wales between 2020 and 2023. METHOD: This retrospective cohort study used electronic medical records from the New South Wales Health Lumos program, covering 680 general practices from January 2020 to November 2023. Individuals aged ≥18 years with a first general practice prescription for semaglutide ("initiators") were included. Counts and proportions of semaglutide initiators by year, sex, age, socioeconomic status, body mass index, and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) status were compared over time. RESULTS: Between 2020 and 2023, 59,009 individuals had a first general practice prescription for semaglutide, increasing from 448 in 2020 to 36,814 in 2023. Women comprised 63.6% of total initiators. The proportion of initiators with T2DM decreased from 92.2% in 2020 to 65.9% in 2023. Initiators with T2DM had a higher median age (women 53 years, men 59 years) compared to non-T2DM initiators (45 years for both sexes) and were more likely to live in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. Greater proportions of non-T2DM initiators were aged <40 years, were female, and resided in less disadvantaged areas. Non-T2DM female initiators were less likely to be obese than those with T2DM (75.7% vs 79.3%), but the converse was true for men (91.0% vs 77.3%). Almost 30% of male initiators and 20% of female initiators without T2DM had a body mass index of >40 kg/m2. CONCLUSIONS: The use of semaglutide in Australia is expanding rapidly, particularly among individuals without T2DM. Patterns in general practice prescribing of semaglutide differ by sex, T2DM status, and socioeconomic factors, raising important questions about equitable access. These trends underscore the need for coordinated policy responses to support fair and sustainable use as demand continues to grow.

Related signals

Strategic Signal

FDA1 Apr 2026New Drug Approval (NDA/BLA)High impact● 10/10i

FDA Approves Foundayo (Orforglipron) — New Drug Approval (NDA/BLA)

FDA approved orforglipron (Foundayo, Eli Lilly) for type 2 diabetes -- a once-daily oral small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist. Orforglipron is the first non-peptide oral GLP-1 approved in the US; oral semaglutide (Rybelsus, Novo Nordisk) has been approved for T2D since 2019 and expanded to obesity in January 2026. Unlike Rybelsus, orforglipron requires no fasting or water volume restrictions before dosing.

GLP-1Type 2 diabetesPricing/accessEli LillyNovo Nordisk

Strategic Signal

Clinical Trial19 Mar 2026Phase 3High impact● 9/10i

Efficacy and Safety of Tirzepatide Once Weekly in Participants Without Type 2 Diabetes Who Have Obesity or Are Overweight With Weight-Related Comorbidities: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial (SURMOUNT-1)

Phase 3 SURMOUNT-1 tests once-weekly tirzepatide at three doses versus placebo in adults without type 2 diabetes who have obesity or are overweight with comorbidities. The randomized, double-blind trial targets 2,539 participants with primary efficacy assessment at 72 weeks. This represents tirzepatide's pivotal obesity trial against placebo, potentially supporting Eli Lilly's bid to compete directly with Wegovy in the non-diabetic obesity market. A prediabetes subgroup continues long-term to assess diabetes prevention.

Weight lossGLP-1Eli Lilly

Strategic Signal

FDA19 Mar 2026Supplemental Approval: Efficacy [Priority Review]High impact● 9/10i

FDA Approves Imcivree (Setmelanotide): Supplemental Approval: Efficacy [Priority Review]

FDA approved a supplemental application for Imcivree (setmelanotide, Rhythm) on March 19, 2026, under priority review. This represents an efficacy-based label expansion for the melanocortin-4 receptor agonist, which was initially approved for rare genetic obesity disorders. Rhythm gains additional indication breadth in the specialized rare obesity market, where treatment options remain extremely limited. The priority review designation signals FDA recognition of significant unmet medical need in the expanded patient population.

Weight lossOtherRhythm

Strategic Signal

Clinical Trial17 Apr 2026Phase 3High impact● 8/10i

A Phase 3, Open-Label Study of Once Daily LY3502970 Compared With Insulin Glargine in Adult Participants With Type 2 Diabetes and Obesity or Overweight at Increased Cardiovascular Risk

Phase 3 open-label trial compared once-daily oral orforglipron versus insulin glargine in people with type 2 diabetes and obesity or overweight at increased cardiovascular risk. The study enrolled 2,749 participants with primary endpoint of time to first major adverse cardiovascular event, completed in March 2026. Eli Lilly is positioning orforglipron as a cardiovascular outcomes option in high-risk populations, directly competing with established insulin therapy in this indication. This represents the first cardiovascular outcomes trial for orforglipron following its April 2026 FDA approval for type 2 diabetes.

GLP-1Type 2 diabetesWeight lossCardiovascularEli Lilly

Weekly briefing

Key signals, decoded for pharma executives and investors. Free, every week.

Questions? Book a consultation →