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PubMed1 Apr 2026·Diabetes, obesity & metabolism● 6/10i

GLP-1 receptor agonists and cardiovascular outcomes in Asian, Black or African American, and White populations: An updated meta-analysis including the SOUL trial.

Hasebe M, Su CY, Kamido H, Yabe D, Yoshiji S

GLP-1 receptor agonists reduced cardiovascular risk by 27% in Asian populations versus 14% in White populations, with similar but non-significant effects in Black or African American populations. Meta-analysis of 9 trials including 74,703 participants with type 2 diabetes or overweight/obesity. This provides the first robust evidence of differential GLP-1RA cardiovascular benefits across racial groups, with Asian populations showing significantly greater relative risk reduction. The finding emerges from inclusion of the recent SOUL trial data.

Strategic signal

FDA will face pressure to include race-specific efficacy data in GLP-1RA labels, following precedents set by BiDil for heart failure and recent FDA guidance on diverse clinical trial enrollment. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly can leverage the stronger Asian efficacy data for market access in Japan and other Asian markets where HTA bodies increasingly demand population-specific evidence. The non-significant result in Black populations, despite similar point estimates, creates a medical affairs challenge requiring careful KOL education to avoid misinterpretation of statistical versus clinical significance.

GLP-1CardiovascularNovo NordiskEli Lilly

Original Abstract

AIMS: To evaluate the cardiovascular efficacy of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) in Asian, Black or African American, and White populations, and to assess whether the magnitude of cardiovascular risk reduction differs across these populations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: PubMed and EMBASE were searched to 11 November 2025 for randomized placebo-controlled GLP-1RA trials in adults with type 2 diabetes or overweight/obesity that reported race-stratified major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or non-fatal stroke). Hazard ratios (HRs) for MACE were extracted for Asian, Black or African American, and White populations. Random-effects meta-analyses were used to obtain pooled HRs and ratios of HRs (RHRs) comparing treatment effects between populations. RESULTS: Nine trials, including the recent SOUL trial, were included, comprising 8164 Asian, 4036 Black or African American, and 62 503 White participants. GLP-1RAs reduced MACE risk in Asian (HR 0.73; 95% CI 0.63-0.85; p < 0.001) and White populations (HR 0.86; 95% CI 0.81-0.91; p < 0.001). In Black or African American populations, the effect was similar to that in White populations (HR 0.88; 95% CI 0.67-1.15; p = 0.34) but did not reach statistical significance. The pooled RHR for Asian versus White populations was 0.84 (95% CI 0.71-0.98; p = 0.027), indicating a significantly greater risk reduction in Asian populations. The RHR for Asian versus Black or African American populations was 0.81 (95% CI 0.57-1.16; p = 0.25), with point estimates favouring Asian populations. CONCLUSIONS: GLP-1RAs reduced MACE risk across populations, with greater relative risk reduction in Asian populations and broadly similar benefits in Black or African American and White populations.

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Weight lossGLP-1Eli Lilly
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GLP-1Weight lossOtherEli Lilly

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